General Office of the State Council forwarded to State Seismological Bureau.
aboutEarthquake trend in 1997 and strengthening earthquake prevention and disaster reduction
Notice of work opinion report
Guo Ban Fa [1997] No.2
People’s governments of all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government, ministries and commissions and institutions directly under the State Council:
The State Seismological Bureau’s Report on Earthquake Trends in 1997 and Opinions on Strengthening Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction has been approved by the State Council and is hereby forwarded to you. Please implement it carefully.
According to the prediction of the seismological department, in the future, China’s seismic activity will still be in the climax stage of the fifth active period since this century. In order to do a good job in earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in an all-round way, all regions and departments, especially the local people’s governments in key earthquake monitoring and prevention areas, should strive to achieve the goal of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in China during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period in accordance with the requirements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and lay a solid foundation for fully realizing the goal of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in the next century; According to the spirit of the Notice of the General Office of the State Council on Printing and Distributing the National Emergency Plan for Destructive Earthquakes (Guo Ban Fa [1996] No.54), we should formulate and further improve the earthquake emergency plan, earnestly do a good job in emergency preparation, and strive to reduce the earthquake disaster losses to a minimum, and make contributions to China’s economic and social development and social stability.
the General Office of the State Council
February 4, 1997
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About the earthquake trend in 1997 and
Report on strengthening the work of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction
The State Council:
Our bureau held the 1997 National Earthquake Trend Meeting from January 7 to 11, 1997, and systematically analyzed, studied and judged the earthquake trend in the next few years, mainly in 1997. The results of the consultation and opinions on strengthening earthquake prevention and disaster reduction are reported as follows:
First, the earthquake activity in China in 1996 and the earthquake trend in 1997 and the next few years
In 1996, under the background of global earthquake activity, there were 38 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above in China, including 26 in mainland China. Since July 12th, 1995, when a strong earthquake of magnitude 7.3 occurred in Menglian, Yunnan, China-Myanmar border, only more than half a year later, moderate earthquakes or strong earthquakes occurred in mainland China, including Lijiang, Yunnan, with magnitude 7.0 on February 3rd, Artux, Xinjiang, with magnitude 6.9 on March 19th, Baotou, Inner Mongolia, with magnitude 6.4 on May 3rd, South Yellow Sea with magnitude 6.1 on November 9th and Karakorum, Xinjiang with magnitude 7.1 on November 19th, indicating that mainland China is still in the process. According to preliminary statistics, the earthquake disaster in 1996 caused a total of 365 deaths and 4026 serious injuries, and the direct economic loss was about 4.6 billion yuan.
According to the follow-up analysis of seismic activities in China and the world in recent years, the meeting held that in the next few years, the seismic activities in China’s mainland will still be in the climax stage of the fifth seismic active period since this century, and several strong earthquakes of magnitude 7 or so will occur, and it is very likely that a major earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or above will occur. The main area of strong earthquake activity may be in the Qinghai-Tibet tectonic block and its marginal zone, including Himalayan seismic belt, north-south seismic belt and western Xinjiang. What needs to be pointed out in particular is that the seismic activity in eastern China, especially in North China, has entered the active period of moderate and strong earthquakes, and it is more likely that there will be many earthquakes of magnitude 5-6 or above in the next few years.
In 1997, there is a great possibility that an earthquake of magnitude 7 or above will occur in mainland China, and the earthquake-producing areas may be in the south-central section of the North-South seismic belt and the Himalayan seismic belt, especially in the area from central and eastern Xizang to the border of Sichuan, Yunnan, Tibet and Qinghai. Earthquakes of magnitude 6 or so may occur in the eastern part of China’s mainland and offshore waters, especially in the northern part of North China, Bohai Sea to the North Yellow Sea. Through the comprehensive analysis of recent seismic activity and precursory observation data, the meeting determined the key dangerous areas with high possibility of destructive earthquakes in 1997.
II. Opinions on Strengthening Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction
Facing the severe earthquake situation, the work of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction should continue to fully implement the spirit of the Fifth and Sixth Plenary Sessions of the 14th CPC Central Committee, strengthen the construction of legal system, rely on scientific and technological progress, focus on promoting the ten-year goal of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in large and medium-sized cities in key earthquake monitoring and prevention areas, realize the synchronous and coordinated development of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction with economy and society, and provide guarantee for economic construction and social stability. To this end, the following suggestions are put forward:
(a) all regions and relevant departments should be in accordance with the general office of the State Council forwarded the State Seismological Bureau on the 1994 earthquake trend and earthquake prevention and disaster reduction work report notice "(Guo Ban Fa [1994] No.36) and the general office of the State Council forwarded the State Seismological Bureau on China’s key earthquake monitoring and defense areas to determine and strengthen earthquake prevention and disaster reduction work report notice" (Guo Ban Fa [1996] No.2) spirit, combined with the actual situation of the region and the department. At present and in the future, we should focus on earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in large and medium-sized cities in key earthquake monitoring and prevention areas and actively promote them.
(two) do a good job in the implementation of the "Regulations on the Emergency of Destructive Earthquakes" and the "National Emergency Plan for Destructive Earthquakes". It is necessary to formulate or improve the "Emergency Plan for Destructive Earthquakes" in this region and department as soon as possible, increase investment in technical systems for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction, especially emergency equipment, and earnestly implement preventive measures. Large and medium-sized cities located in key earthquake monitoring and defense areas should pay close attention to earthquake damage prediction.
(3) Strengthen the management of the seismic fortification work of the project and bring it into the legal track as soon as possible. Local people’s governments at all levels and relevant departments should earnestly do a good job in the determination of seismic fortification standards, seismic design and construction. It is suggested that at an appropriate time this year, the State Council should organize relevant departments to conduct an inspection on the seismic fortification work of some cities in key earthquake monitoring and prevention areas, so as to promote the implementation of the work.
(four) actively carry out publicity and education on earthquake prevention and disaster reduction knowledge. The local people’s governments at all levels, especially the people’s governments where the key earthquake monitoring and prevention areas are located, should take the publicity of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction knowledge as an important part of publicity and education, and correctly grasp the principle of "being active, prudent, scientific and effective". We can make use of the typical earthquake events with great influence at home and abroad, the earthquake memorial day such as Tangshan and the popular science publicity week to increase the publicity and popularization of education in a timely manner. Earthquake departments at all levels should actively cooperate with relevant departments to do a good job in the publicity and education of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction knowledge. Through the efforts during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, first of all, in key earthquake monitoring and defense areas, the knowledge of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction will be made a household name.
(5) In view of the earthquake situation facing North China and the special importance of the Capital Region, it is suggested that the Capital Region should be built into a comprehensive demonstration area for the ten-year goal of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in China. Through the efforts during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, it has become the first model area for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction with the ability to resist earthquakes of magnitude 6 or so, which is of exemplary significance to the whole country.
(six) in order to effectively strengthen the work of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction, the people’s governments at all levels should strengthen the leadership of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction and increase investment. The Report of the State Planning Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the State Seismological Bureau on Establishing and Improving the Plan System for Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction and the Corresponding Funding Channels has been approved by the State Council, and the people’s governments of all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government are requested to conscientiously implement it.
If there is nothing wrong with the above opinions, please forward them to all regions and departments for implementation.
state seismological bureau
January 20, 1997