Zhongxin. comBeijing, August 24th: Six months after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, five major variables have influenced the trend.
The author is sweet
It has been half a year since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, and there is still no sign of a ceasefire. However, this "the biggest geopolitical crisis in Europe since World War II" has completely changed the world situation: multinational economies have not yet emerged from the shadow of the epidemic, and they are facing inflation, supply chain disruption and energy crisis; The west and Russia are in the same boat, tearing the already fragile international security pattern.
There are many disputes. It is widely believed that this planned "lightning raid" operation is likely to last for several years. The coming winter may become the "key node" of the conflict, among which, five variables may affect the future trend.
Stretch for half a year
Has the Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered a new stage?
Since August, artillery shells have been falling near the Zaborozh nuclear power plant in Ukraine, causing many concerns about the risk of nuclear disaster. As early as March this year, the Russian army claimed to have controlled the Zaporoge nuclear power plant, but for several months, the artillery fire has not stopped, as if it were a microcosm of the dawn of a ceasefire.
Since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a special military operation in Donbass on February 24th, at the end of March, Russia declared that the first phase of military operation was basically completed and it would focus on "liberating" Donbass in Udon. As the Russian army advanced step by step, in July, Russia completely controlled Udong Lugansk, and Uzbekistan admitted its defeat.
Unlike the Russian army seeking "steady and steady progress", the Ukrainian army has recently shifted its offensive focus to the southern front, and has repeatedly announced that it is planning a massive counterattack.
There were many attacks on military bases and ammunition depots in Crimea, and Ukraine did not formally admit its responsibility, but Zelensky indicated that the war "started in Crimea and ended in Crimea".
The British Ministry of Defence predicts that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will soon enter a "new stage", forming a 350-kilometer-long front extending from Zaporoge to Hellson.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the five major variables may have an impact on the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Variable 1: Ling Dong is coming.
Climate is expected to become one of the key variables soon.
Recently, Ukraine has repeatedly "let out the wind", hoping to win at least one tactical victory before winter. Ermak, director of the Ukrainian President’s Office, also pointed out that Ukraine must make substantial progress before the winter, otherwise Russian troops will have more time to stabilize the battlefield situation, and it will become more difficult for Ukrainian troops to fight back.
After all, Moscow once defeated Napoleon and Hitler’s army with the help of "General Winter". Now, it has energy weapons in hand and has repeatedly "carried natural gas" to make European countries.
Although Europe follows the US energy sanctions against Russia, at present, it is more of a "bite" by sanctions. Energy bills in many countries have soared, and people are worried about heating in winter.
And how much energy do troubled European countries have left to support Ukraine?
Bloomberg bluntly said, "No matter what indicators are used, Putin is winning the energy war."
Variable 2: Inflation Test
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also aggravating the global inflation risk, laying a "hidden danger" for future changes in the situation.
International food prices and crude oil prices fell in August, but the gradual cooling of the commodity market was not quickly reflected in the people’s living costs, and the inflation rate in some countries continued to rise to new highs for decades.
According to the data released by Eurostat on August 18th, the inflation rate of 19 countries in the euro zone was 8.9% in July, a record high.
At the same time, the global food supply is facing uncertainty. Although Russia and Ukraine rarely reach a grain transportation agreement, ships carrying hundreds of thousands of tons of Ukrainian agricultural products are shipped from the Black Sea, but it is obviously not enough to solve the global "hunger".
UN Secretary-General Guterres stressed that at present, Russian fertilizer and agricultural exports still face "obstacles".
The analysis pointed out that the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict hit the world economy that has not yet shaken off the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, and related sanctions pushed up prices in Europe and the United States, and the pressure of inflation on residents’ purchasing power was testing the support of countries to Ukraine.
Variable 3: Western military aid
Under heavy pressure, how much practical assistance can the United States and the West provide to Ukraine?
Western media are not sure about this, because the western camp that originally held a group has now "split".
On the one hand, the United States is still taking the lead in "arching the fire", including providing about 10 billion US dollars of military support to Ukraine. Poland and Baltic countries also continue to advocate full support for Ukraine.
In contrast, many European countries have some "insufficient stamina". France and Germany, in particular, seem to be more eager to reach a quick solution through negotiations.
The database of "Tracking Aid to Ukraine" under the Kiel Institute for World Economics in Germany also shows that in recent months, the aid of six European countries to Ukraine has plummeted, and in July, no new bilateral military aid commitments were provided to Ukraine.
Coffman, director of the Russian Research Program of the US Naval Analysis Center, believes that European aid may have reached its limit, which will force Uzbekistan to go on an "ammunition diet".
Variable 4: Nuclear disaster risk
From Chernobyl to Zaporoze nuclear power plant, the shadow has never dissipated. Recently, the attention around the nuclear disaster has been heating up again, and the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and the United States have urged all parties to maintain military restraint.
The largest nuclear power plant in Europe has long been under Russian control, and Ukrainian technicians are responsible for its operation. However, the two sides have been repeatedly pulling on the attack and defense of nuclear power plants, from real guns to "information warfare."
According to Ukrainian statistics, Russian troops regularly shelled the nuclear power plant area, and many radiation monitoring sensors around the storage of spent fuel facility of the nuclear power plant were damaged due to Russian attacks. Zelensky also specially added a "fire", saying that if a nuclear disaster occurs, it will affect the whole of Europe.
The Russian army issued a statement, claiming that the Ukrainian army repeatedly used artillery to attack the nuclear power plant area, and questioned Uzbekistan as a bargaining chip for seeking Western support. Because some diplomats have hinted that the nuclear attack is regarded by western countries as one of the "red lines" of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, "unless it crosses the red line, (the West) has no will to take further action."
So, will there be a more terrible disaster than Chernobyl?
At present, preventing the escalation of the situation remains the primary choice of all parties to the conflict. UN Secretary-General Guterres went to Uzbekistan for mediation and consultation. French President Macron also spoke to Putin, who agreed to the French proposal to send an IAEA expert team to the nuclear power plant.
Variable 5: popular support
In the eyes of some foreign media, the next biggest "variable" may lie in the attitude of people in western countries.
Some people who originally supported Ukraine are now "tired" of the conflict. Among them, a survey of 10 European countries shows that 42% of the respondents believe that the government pays too much attention to Ukraine compared with its own troubles.
Accompanied by this, some diplomats and observers have noticed that some western countries have avoided specific measures against Ukraine for fear of getting "cold support" from the people, and even become increasingly reluctant to openly oppose Russia.
However, the cooling of public opinion does not mean the end of the conflict. The analysis believes that in view of the very contradictory positions of all parties, there is still no solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Kalachev, a Moscow political analyst, pointed out that "the war may last for several years" because neither side seems to consider a ceasefire. It remains to be seen what kind of trade-offs will be brought about by the game of great powers. (End)