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　　Zhongxin. comBeijing, August 24th: Six months after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, five major variables have influenced the trend.

　　The author is sweet

　　It has been half a year since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, and there is still no sign of a ceasefire. However, this "the biggest geopolitical crisis in Europe since World War II" has completely changed the world situation: multinational economies have not yet emerged from the shadow of the epidemic, and they are facing inflation, supply chain disruption and energy crisis; The west and Russia are in the same boat, tearing the already fragile international security pattern.

　　There are many disputes. It is widely believed that this planned "lightning raid" operation is likely to last for several years. The coming winter may become the "key node" of the conflict, among which, five variables may affect the future trend.

　　Stretch for half a year

　　Has the Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered a new stage?

　　Since August, artillery shells have been falling near the Zaborozh nuclear power plant in Ukraine, causing many concerns about the risk of nuclear disaster. As early as March this year, the Russian army claimed to have controlled the Zaporoge nuclear power plant, but for several months, the artillery fire has not stopped, as if it were a microcosm of the dawn of a ceasefire.

　　Since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a special military operation in Donbass on February 24th, at the end of March, Russia declared that the first phase of military operation was basically completed and it would focus on "liberating" Donbass in Udon. As the Russian army advanced step by step, in July, Russia completely controlled Udong Lugansk, and Uzbekistan admitted its defeat.

　　Unlike the Russian army seeking "steady and steady progress", the Ukrainian army has recently shifted its offensive focus to the southern front, and has repeatedly announced that it is planning a massive counterattack.

　　There were many attacks on military bases and ammunition depots in Crimea, and Ukraine did not formally admit its responsibility, but Zelensky indicated that the war "started in Crimea and ended in Crimea".

　　The British Ministry of Defence predicts that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will soon enter a "new stage", forming a 350-kilometer-long front extending from Zaporoge to Hellson.

　　As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the five major variables may have an impact on the situation in Russia and Ukraine.

　　Variable 1: Ling Dong is coming.

　　Climate is expected to become one of the key variables soon.

　　Recently, Ukraine has repeatedly "let out the wind", hoping to win at least one tactical victory before winter. Ermak, director of the Ukrainian President’s Office, also pointed out that Ukraine must make substantial progress before the winter, otherwise Russian troops will have more time to stabilize the battlefield situation, and it will become more difficult for Ukrainian troops to fight back.

　　After all, Moscow once defeated Napoleon and Hitler’s army with the help of "General Winter". Now, it has energy weapons in hand and has repeatedly "carried natural gas" to make European countries.

　　Although Europe follows the US energy sanctions against Russia, at present, it is more of a "bite" by sanctions. Energy bills in many countries have soared, and people are worried about heating in winter.

　　And how much energy do troubled European countries have left to support Ukraine?

　　Bloomberg bluntly said, "No matter what indicators are used, Putin is winning the energy war."

　　Variable 2: Inflation Test

　　The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also aggravating the global inflation risk, laying a "hidden danger" for future changes in the situation.

　　International food prices and crude oil prices fell in August, but the gradual cooling of the commodity market was not quickly reflected in the people’s living costs, and the inflation rate in some countries continued to rise to new highs for decades.

　　According to the data released by Eurostat on August 18th, the inflation rate of 19 countries in the euro zone was 8.9% in July, a record high.

　　At the same time, the global food supply is facing uncertainty. Although Russia and Ukraine rarely reach a grain transportation agreement, ships carrying hundreds of thousands of tons of Ukrainian agricultural products are shipped from the Black Sea, but it is obviously not enough to solve the global "hunger".

　　UN Secretary-General Guterres stressed that at present, Russian fertilizer and agricultural exports still face "obstacles".

　　The analysis pointed out that the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict hit the world economy that has not yet shaken off the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, and related sanctions pushed up prices in Europe and the United States, and the pressure of inflation on residents’ purchasing power was testing the support of countries to Ukraine.

　　Variable 3: Western military aid

　　Under heavy pressure, how much practical assistance can the United States and the West provide to Ukraine?

　　Western media are not sure about this, because the western camp that originally held a group has now "split".

　　On the one hand, the United States is still taking the lead in "arching the fire", including providing about 10 billion US dollars of military support to Ukraine. Poland and Baltic countries also continue to advocate full support for Ukraine.

　　In contrast, many European countries have some "insufficient stamina". France and Germany, in particular, seem to be more eager to reach a quick solution through negotiations.

　　The database of "Tracking Aid to Ukraine" under the Kiel Institute for World Economics in Germany also shows that in recent months, the aid of six European countries to Ukraine has plummeted, and in July, no new bilateral military aid commitments were provided to Ukraine.

　　Coffman, director of the Russian Research Program of the US Naval Analysis Center, believes that European aid may have reached its limit, which will force Uzbekistan to go on an "ammunition diet".

　　Variable 4: Nuclear disaster risk

　　From Chernobyl to Zaporoze nuclear power plant, the shadow has never dissipated. Recently, the attention around the nuclear disaster has been heating up again, and the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and the United States have urged all parties to maintain military restraint.

　　The largest nuclear power plant in Europe has long been under Russian control, and Ukrainian technicians are responsible for its operation. However, the two sides have been repeatedly pulling on the attack and defense of nuclear power plants, from real guns to "information warfare."

　　According to Ukrainian statistics, Russian troops regularly shelled the nuclear power plant area, and many radiation monitoring sensors around the storage of spent fuel facility of the nuclear power plant were damaged due to Russian attacks. Zelensky also specially added a "fire", saying that if a nuclear disaster occurs, it will affect the whole of Europe.

　　The Russian army issued a statement, claiming that the Ukrainian army repeatedly used artillery to attack the nuclear power plant area, and questioned Uzbekistan as a bargaining chip for seeking Western support. Because some diplomats have hinted that the nuclear attack is regarded by western countries as one of the "red lines" of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, "unless it crosses the red line, (the West) has no will to take further action."

　　So, will there be a more terrible disaster than Chernobyl?

　　At present, preventing the escalation of the situation remains the primary choice of all parties to the conflict. UN Secretary-General Guterres went to Uzbekistan for mediation and consultation. French President Macron also spoke to Putin, who agreed to the French proposal to send an IAEA expert team to the nuclear power plant.

　　Variable 5: popular support

　　In the eyes of some foreign media, the next biggest "variable" may lie in the attitude of people in western countries.

　　Some people who originally supported Ukraine are now "tired" of the conflict. Among them, a survey of 10 European countries shows that 42% of the respondents believe that the government pays too much attention to Ukraine compared with its own troubles.

　　Accompanied by this, some diplomats and observers have noticed that some western countries have avoided specific measures against Ukraine for fear of getting "cold support" from the people, and even become increasingly reluctant to openly oppose Russia.

　　However, the cooling of public opinion does not mean the end of the conflict. The analysis believes that in view of the very contradictory positions of all parties, there is still no solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Kalachev, a Moscow political analyst, pointed out that "the war may last for several years" because neither side seems to consider a ceasefire. It remains to be seen what kind of trade-offs will be brought about by the game of great powers. (End)

　　CCTV News:The Supreme Court has just issued a new regulation,In the future, information such as who is the presiding judge of the case, who is the prosecutor, when the court will open, and when the sentence will be pronounced can be found online!

　　Today, the Supreme People’s Court released the "Provisions of the Supreme People’s Court on People’s Courts Publicizing Trial Process Information through the Internet". According to this provision, in the future, the trial process information including the basic situation of the case, the trial organization and the progress of the case will be fully disclosed to the parties through the Internet, so as to satisfy the parties’ right to know, participate and supervise to the maximum extent.

　　According to the newly issued Regulations, except for the trial process information involving state secrets and which should be kept confidential or restricted by laws and judicial interpretations, the procedural information, the process information of handling litigation matters, litigation documents and transcripts generated during the trial of criminal, civil, administrative and state compensation cases by the people’s courts should be disclosed to the parties involved in litigation and their legal representatives, litigation agents and defenders through the Internet.

　　So what information should be made public? Article 7 of the Judicial Interpretation states that the following procedural information should be made public to the parties and their legal representatives, agents ad litem and defenders through the Internet:　

　　(1) Information on case acceptance and filing, and information on case closure;　　

　　(2) Information of procuratorial organs and penalty execution organs, and information of the parties concerned;　　

　　(3) Information on the organization of the trial;　　

　　(4) Information such as trial procedure, trial period, service, appeal, protest and transfer;　　

　　(five) the time and place of court trial, cross-examination, evidence exchange, pre-trial meeting, inquiry, sentencing and other litigation activities;　　

　　(six) the publication of the judgment document in China judgment document network;　　

　　(seven) other procedural information that should be made public according to laws and judicial interpretations, or that the people’s court thinks can be made public.

　　The "Regulations" also clarified the China trial process information disclosure network as "a unified platform for people’s courts to disclose trial process information". Since late February 2018, the courts in Hebei, Jiangsu, Qinghai and Ningxia have been the first pilot areas, and the third-level courts have begun to disclose the trial process information of newly received cases to the parties and their legal representatives, litigation agents and defenders through a unified platform, 12368 SMS, WeChat service number and small programs.

　　The Regulations shall come into force on September 1, 2018. After the implementation, the people’s courts at all levels in the country will disclose the trial process information through a unified platform in accordance with unified standards. (CCTV reporter Li Wenjie)

A 2.0T medium-sized off-road SUV has a comprehensive fuel consumption of only 8.83L(WTCL comprehensive fuel consumption) per 100 kilometers, which was absolutely impossible in the past, but Jietu travelers did it.

As a comparison, the comprehensive fuel consumption of WTCL for tank 300 with the same level and size, but the price is one level higher than that of travelers, reaches 9.9L per 100 kilometers. Jetway travelers are larger in size, higher in power and lower in fuel consumption than tank 300, which is an interesting and core car cost issue.

Big body, high power and low fuel consumption, how do Jietu travelers do it?

After more than 20 years of grinding a sword, Kunpeng Power Sword refers to the whole world.

Some people may say that it doesn’t matter if the fuel consumption is 1 liter per 100 kilometers, it’s a matter of a few dollars. But if you look at it in a year, you can save thousands of dollars in gas money every year, which is not a small expense.

By way of digression, in Management Economics, we discussed such a question: Will the increase of oil price lead to the decrease of oil consumption? The answer is: in the short term, the oil consumption of car owners is basically the same, because the travel demand is fixed. However, if we put the time scale into five or ten years, we will find that the oil consumption is significantly decreasing.

In other words, fuel cost affects the long-term decision-making of car owners, and most car owners will become more and more sensitive to fuel consumption. So until today, one of the main research and development lines of major automobile manufacturers is still to reduce fuel consumption.

In order to reduce the fuel consumption by 0.1L per 100 kilometers, it even needs to invest hundreds of millions and billions of R&D costs-Chery Group, which is famous for its image as a technology emperor and a science and technology man, was originally famous for its dead engine technology.

Continuous R&D investment has brought rich returns to Chery Group. Kunpeng Power, which has been grinding a sword for more than 20 years, leads the world in energy consumption, stability and power.

Jietu Traveler is fully equipped with Kunpeng Power, which originated from the "global power architecture of Chery 4.0 era" and is the masterpiece of fuel power solutions. Traveler’s fuel version has three power options: 1.5TD-7DCT, 2.0TD-7DCT and 2.0TD-8AT.

Among them, 2.0TGDI Kunpeng Power adopts the third generation engine independently developed by Chery, with a maximum power of 187kW and a peak torque of 390N?m, which is the strongest 2.0T in China, and its power reserve is equivalent to a 3.5L V6 engine. In contrast, the 2.0T power of the tank 300 is only 167kW, which is 10% lower than that of the Voyager 2.0T model, but the fuel consumption is more than 10%. 85% of the travelers’ owners choose the 2.0T model.

This is the result of Chery’s continuous research and development of technology for ten years, and it has become an "engine expert" with absolute advantage today. This 2.0T engine won the "China Heart" Top Ten Engine Award. In order to drain the energy of every fuel, it adopts a special structural design and integrates the world-leading technologies such as I-HEC II intelligent combustion system, Miller cycle, fully integrated ultra-low friction technology and super transient response power system.

More importantly, it only needs to add 92 # gasoline, which can save a lot of fuel consumption.

"De-girder" not only reduces fuel consumption but also improves driving comfort.

It has been the consensus of research and development in the automobile industry for decades that the "dead knock" in technology and material research and development can often bring unexpected advantages.

Jietu travelers use high-strength materials to improve the torsional stiffness of the car body and replace the girders with the "de-girder" design, which not only ensures off-road performance, but also reduces the weight of the car body and fuel consumption.

In order to improve the rigidity of the body, conventional off-road vehicles generally adopt non-load-bearing body with girder structure, and even in rugged terrain, the door and body will not be deformed. Jietu also pursues the rigidity of the car body, and can also achieve the effect of car body invariance, but it removes the girder and adopts the way of using ultra-high strength materials.

Jietu Voyager adopts submarine-class body, with high-strength steel accounting for 80%, and adopts integrated laser tailor welding. The torsional stiffness of the whole car body reaches an astonishing 31 000 N m/deg, which is the same level as Land Rover Defender, and at the same time, the comfort is greatly improved.

Using high-strength materials to design girders brings two major benefits to Jietu travelers. One is to reduce the weight and fuel consumption as mentioned above. The other is that after removing the girders, the whole vehicle adopts a load-bearing body and is independently suspended in front and rear, which greatly improves the comfort of the whole vehicle and even gets the ride experience of urban SUVs. At the same time, after the isolation between the car body and the wheels is removed, the car body is more sensitive to the control of the wheels, more agile, and the sense of control is obviously improved.

Although the girder is removed, the off-road performance of Jietu travelers is still good. In terms of hardware, its body has 28 approach angle, 30 departure angle, 220mm minimum ground clearance and 700mm wading depth.

In addition, the car is equipped with XWD fully-automatic intelligent four-wheel drive system. Through the cooperative work of the central intelligent torque manager and the intelligent slip-limited differential lock at the rear axle, it can switch between 2-wheel drive and 4-wheel drive in 0.1 second according to different road conditions. Ordinary unpaved roads, sand, mud and snow can be easily handled, and U-shaped cross shafts and bullet holes can pass through, which has the advantages of the passability of off-road vehicles and the excellent comfort of SUVs.

In the current fierce market competition, you can’t go far without your own core technology. Backed by Chery Group, a "technology emperor" and "technology man", Jietu travelers are already ahead of friends in technology, and with the accurate travel positioning based on users’ needs, it is difficult to think about it. In fact, fuel consumption is only one of the advantages, and this car has more detailed advantages worth exploring.

　　■ The "newness" of the new journey is reflected in the early realization of the strategic goal, that is, the socialist modernization will be basically realized in 2035, and China will be built into a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful socialist modernization power in the middle of this century; The "newness" of the new journey is also reflected in the rich expansion of the connotation of strategic objectives.

　　■ The historic changes and achievements in the cause of the Party and the state since the 18th National Congress are the most direct and realistic basis for starting a new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.

　　■ The Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought and Basic Strategy in the New Era have provided fundamental follow-up for us to build a socialist modern country in an all-round way and write a magnificent chapter in the new journey of socialist modernization.

　　The history of the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s struggle is written by a series of new journeys. In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the General Secretary of the Supreme Leader described the grand blueprint of marching towards the goal of the second century after building a well-off society in an all-round way in 2020, and started a new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.

　　This is an epoch-making strategic plan and a magnificent journey that will go down in history forever.

　　(1)

　　The new journey points to a new goal, and the new goal leads a new journey.

　　After the decisive victory in building a well-off society in an all-round way, the new goal of the development of the party and the state is to build a socialist modern country in an all-round way in two steps. Accordingly, the new journey is also divided into two stages of relay endeavor.

　　In the first stage, from 2020 to 2035, on the basis of building a well-off society in an all-round way, we will struggle for another 15 years and basically realize socialist modernization. By then, China’s economic strength and scientific and technological strength will jump sharply and rank among the forefront of innovative countries; The people’s rights to equal participation and equal development have been fully guaranteed, a country ruled by law, a government ruled by law and a society ruled by law have been basically established, all aspects of the system have been improved, and the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity has been basically realized; The degree of social civilization has reached a new height, the soft power of national culture has been significantly enhanced, and the influence of Chinese culture has been more extensive and in-depth; People’s lives are more affluent, the proportion of middle-income groups has increased significantly, the gap between urban and rural regional development and the gap between residents’ living standards has narrowed significantly, the equalization of basic public services has basically been realized, and all people have taken solid steps towards common prosperity; The governance pattern of modern society has basically taken shape, and the society is full of vitality and harmonious and orderly; The ecological environment has basically improved, and the goal of a beautiful China has basically been achieved.

　　In the second stage, from 2035 to the middle of this century, on the basis of basically realizing modernization, we will strive for another 15 years to build China into a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful socialist modernization power. By then, China’s material civilization, political civilization, spiritual civilization, social civilization and ecological civilization will be comprehensively improved, the national governance system and governance capacity will be modernized, and China will become a country with leading comprehensive national strength and international influence, and the common prosperity of all people will be basically realized. Our people will enjoy a happier and healthier life, and the Chinese nation will stand among the nations of the world with a more high-spirited attitude.

　　The "newness" of the new journey is reflected in the early realization of the strategic goal, that is, the socialist modernization will be basically realized in 2035, and China will be built into a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful socialist modernization power in the middle of this century; The "newness" of the new journey is also reflected in the rich expansion of the connotation of strategic objectives, such as being among the forefront of innovative countries and basically realizing the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity; Become a country with leading comprehensive national strength and international influence, and the common prosperity of all the people is basically realized … …

　　(2)

　　Building a socialist modern country in an all-round way bears the long-cherished wish and dream of China people to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in modern times.

　　In 1894, Dr. Sun Yat-sen, the great pioneer of China’s democratic revolution, first mentioned "rejuvenating China" when he founded the revolutionary group Xing Zhong Hui.

　　In 1940, Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out in "On New Democracy" that all the purposes of communist party people are to build a new society and a new country of the Chinese nation.

　　In 1990, Comrade Deng Xiaoping said in his speech that after the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, we concentrated our efforts on the four modernizations with a view to rejuvenating the Chinese nation. In 1997, Comrade Jiang Zemin put forward the goal of "realizing the all-round rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" in the report of the 15th National Congress. In 2007, Comrade Hu Jintao emphasized in the report of the 17th National Congress: "The historical mission of realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."

　　Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Supreme Leader has emphasized in many speeches that realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the greatest dream of the Chinese nation in modern times. Since its founding, our party has shouldered the historical mission of realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; By the centenary of the founding of New China, the goal of building a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized and harmonious socialist modern country will surely be realized, and the dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will surely be realized.

　　The grand blueprint for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way described in the report of the 19th National Congress not only inherits the greatest dream of the Chinese nation in modern times, but also enriches, develops and innovates the connotation of this great dream.

　　(3)

　　Over the past 96 years, the people of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and China have created one miracle after another, laying a solid theoretical, practical and institutional foundation for the new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.

　　Since its founding, our party has led the people to fight bloody battles for 28 years, completed the new-democratic revolution, and established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, realizing the great leap of China from thousands of years of feudal autocracy to people’s democracy.

　　After the founding of New China, our Party United and led the people to complete the socialist revolution, established the basic socialist system, promoted socialist construction, completed the most extensive and profound social changes in the history of the Chinese nation, and laid a fundamental political premise and institutional foundation for all the development and progress of contemporary China.

　　Our Party also unites and leads the people in the new great revolution of reform and opening up, breaks down all ideological and institutional obstacles that hinder the development of the country and the nation, opens up the road to Socialism with Chinese characteristics, and makes China catch up with the times in great strides.

　　Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, with great political courage and strong responsibility, our party has put forward a series of new ideas, new ideas and new strategies, solved many long-term unsolved problems, accomplished many major events that we wanted to do in the past, promoted historic changes in the cause of the party and the country, and achieved historic achievements in reform, opening up and socialist modernization. These historic changes and achievements are the most direct and realistic basis for starting a new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.

　　(4)

　　Sailing in the sea is inseparable from the pilot of the lighthouse; The great journey cannot be separated from the guide of scientific theory.

　　Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core has made arduous theoretical explorations and made great theoretical innovations, closely centering on what kind of Socialism with Chinese characteristics and how to uphold and develop Socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, and formed the Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the new era. Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the New Era is the inheritance and development of Marxism–Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, Theory of Three Represents and Scientific Outlook on Development, the latest achievement of Marxism in China, the crystallization of the practical experience and collective wisdom of the Party and the people, an important part of Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s theoretical system, and an action guide for the whole party and people to build a socialist modern country in an all-round way and strive for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

　　The Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the new era involves reform, development and stability, internal affairs, foreign affairs and national defense, and governing the party, country and army. It is a complete scientific theoretical system, and its spiritual essence and rich connotation are mainly reflected in the fourteen basic strategies for upholding and developing Socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era. The Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought and basic strategy in the new era have defined the general goal, general task, overall layout, strategic layout and development direction, development mode, development motivation, strategic steps, external conditions and political guarantee of adhering to and developing Socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, which has provided a fundamental basis for us to build a socialist modernized country in an all-round way and write a magnificent chapter in the new journey of socialist modernization. (Li Shenming, a researcher at Socialism with Chinese characteristics Theoretical System Research Center of China Academy of Social Sciences)