This week’s opinion update: The market has entered a period of intensive disclosure of performance forecast. As of January 28th, 67 listed auto companies under the CITIC industry classification have released their 2023 annual performance forecast, among which 55 have pre-increased their net profit, 26 have increased by more than 100%, and 4 have published performance reports. In terms of sub-sectors, Great Wall Motor, the leader of its own brand in passenger car sector, published a performance report, with revenue increasing by 26.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to its mother dropped by 15.2% year-on-year. In 2023, the passenger car market benefited from steady domestic demand and high overseas exports, and its sales volume rose sharply. The market share of its own brand continued to rise, and the listed companies in passenger car sector made significant gains in revenue. However, due to the "price war" brought by intensified industry competition, the profitability of its own As for the commercial vehicle sector, the net profit of the seven commercial vehicle companies that have announced the performance forecast all achieved positive growth, among which the net profit of Foton Motor increased by 1298% year-on-year, that of China Heavy Duty Truck increased by 370%-420% year-on-year, and that of Yutong Bus increased by 85%-150% year-on-year. The operating conditions of listed companies in the commercial vehicle sector improved greatly, which was mainly driven by the steady increase in infrastructure investment in 2023 and the rebound in downstream demand brought by the rapid recovery of the logistics industry, The performance of listed companies in the parts sector has continued to differentiate, mainly because of the changeable competition pattern in the vehicle market.The performance of parts companies is greatly influenced by the sales of downstream customers. The performance of parts companies with technical barriers and customer resource advantages is more prosperous, such as Xiangshan, Junsheng Electronics, Xinquan, Yin Lun, Aikedi, Bethel and Top Group, and their net profit has increased to varying degrees. On the whole, the high prosperity of China automobile market in 2023 has been initially reflected in the performance forecast of listed companies. Driven by the accelerated export of passenger cars and the bottoming out of commercial vehicles, the sales volume of the automobile market reached a historical record, which brought significant room for performance improvement for the upstream and downstream industrial chains of the automobile sector. The strategic advantages of independent brands deeply cultivating new energy products and parts manufacturers deeply binding core customers are gradually reflected in the performance side. It is expected that the overall performance of the automobile sector will show a steady and positive trend in 2023.
Zhou Du Market Review: This week, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index rose and fell by 2.75%, -0.28% and 1.96% respectively. The rise and fall of the automobile sector is -1.27%, ranking 25th among 30 industries, and it is still in the adjustment stage.
From the molecular sector, commercial vehicles, sales and services, passenger cars, motorcycles and other parts rose and fell by 4.66%, 4.20%, -0.56%, -0.63% and -3.51% respectively. In terms of valuation, the P/E ratios of sales and services, spare parts, motorcycles and others, commercial vehicles and passenger cars are 38.28x/22.50x/17.76x/16.84x/16.43x respectively. The price-to-book ratios of spare parts, motorcycles and others, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, sales and services are 2.17x/1.89x/1.75x/1.70x/0.75x respectively.
Investment suggestion: Guangzhou Automobile Group, BYD, Changan Automobile and Great Wall Motor are recommended for the whole vehicle; Intelligent components are recommended by Huayu Automobile, Bethel, Desai Siwei, Zhongke Chuangda, Coboda, Junsheng Electronics, Chineydy, etc. Farah Electronics, Zhongrong Electric, Huawei Technologies, Precision Forging Technologies, Top Group and Xusheng Group are recommended for new energy components.
Risk warning: 1. The risk that car sales will not reach expectations. 2. Industrial chain risks caused by the shortage of chips and parts. 3. Risk of intensified competition in the industry.
Nbdtoutiao)— —In the face of a maximum sentence of 45 years, well-known rich people pleaded guilty! He is worth over 54 billion … …
(Reporter Wang Xiaobo)