Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 24th Title: Promote high-quality development and achieve new results with new weather and new actions — — Looking at the New Trends of Economic Work in the Second Half of 2023 from Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party
Xinhua news agency reporter
2023 is the first year to fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and it is crucial to do a good job in economic work. How to treat the economic operation in the first half of the year? What are the priorities of economic work in the second half of the year? The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on the 24th to analyze and study the current economic situation, deploy economic work in the second half of the year, and convey a new trend of firmly promoting high-quality economic development.
The overall economic recovery is improving, and the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability is adhered to.
The meeting pointed out that since the beginning of this year, "the national economy has continued to recover and the overall recovery has improved", but "the current economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in some enterprises, many hidden risks in key areas, and complex and severe external environment".
The meeting made an important analysis and judgment on the current economic situation in China, which is an important prerequisite for doing a good job in economic work in the second half of the year.
The meeting pointed out that after the epidemic prevention and control turned smoothly, economic recovery was a process of wave-like development and tortuous progress.
"You can’t understand this round of recovery with old eyes." Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that the recovery in the post-epidemic period is staged, especially in the transition from social restoration to economic and profit restoration, and then to balance sheet restoration, it is normal for indicators to fluctuate and expectations to fluctuate.
It is necessary to understand not only the short-term "shape" but also the long-term "potential". In the first half of the year, China’s economy grew by 5.5% year-on-year, and the recovery rate was in a leading position among the major economies in the world. In this regard, the meeting stressed that "China’s economy has great development resilience and potential, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed."
Since July, the new measures to stabilize the economy released intensively from the central government to the local government have made all parties look forward to the economic development in the second half of the year.
Focusing on doing a good job in economic work in the second half of the year, the meeting stressed that "we must adhere to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability" and "focus on expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence, preventing risks, and constantly promoting the continuous improvement of economic operation, the continuous enhancement of endogenous motivation, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the continuous resolution of potential risks".
"The meeting focused on the key issues in the current economic and social development, made a series of important arrangements, and accelerated the implementation of various policies, which is of great significance for promoting the sustained improvement of economic operations." Li Chengjian, director of the Second Research Office of Macroeconomic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, said.
Implementing macro-control accurately and forcefully to boost investor confidence
Do a good job in economic work in the second half of the year, and macro-policy trends have attracted much attention. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to make good use of policy space, identify the direction of development, and solidly promote high-quality economic development. It is necessary to implement macro-control accurately and forcefully, and strengthen countercyclical adjustment and policy reserve.
In view of the challenges faced by economic operation, Feng Xuming, director of the Research Office of Macroeconomic Think Tank of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that the meeting proposed to strengthen countercyclical adjustment and policy reserve, which would help the recovery of economic endogenous power.
"We should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy", "Give full play to the role of aggregate and structural monetary policy tools and vigorously support scientific and technological innovation, the real economy and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises" and "Activate the capital market and boost investor confidence" … … The meeting identified a number of deployments.
In Feng Xuming’s view, fiscal policy will continue to focus on helping enterprises bail out and promoting investment, and maintain positive efforts; Monetary policy uses price tools more actively and flexibly, and optimizes the design of structural monetary policy tools. Strengthening the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies will help to form a joint force to expand demand.
The key to boosting confidence is to stimulate the vitality of enterprises. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system, accelerate the cultivation and expansion of strategic emerging industries, and create more pillar industries. It is necessary to promote the deep integration of the digital economy with advanced manufacturing and modern service industries and promote the safe development of artificial intelligence. It is necessary to promote the healthy and sustainable development of platform enterprises.
Li Gang, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that further promoting the construction of a modern industrial system will help expand and consolidate the advantages of industrial development, deeply integrate digital technology with the real economy, and foster new growth engines.
Actively expanding domestic demand and promoting the re-emergence of consumption engines
Insufficient total demand is a prominent contradiction facing the current economic operation. The meeting proposed that "we should actively expand domestic demand" and "give play to the basic role of consumption in stimulating economic growth, expand consumption by increasing residents’ income, and promote effective supply through terminal demand, and organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening structural reform on the supply side".
Chen Lifen, a researcher at the Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said that under the current background of insufficient kinetic energy of world economic growth and the slowdown of global trade growth, it is necessary to stick to the strategy of expanding domestic demand, so as to make development rely more on domestic demand, especially consumer demand.
Since the beginning of this year, all localities and departments have given priority to restoring and expanding consumption, and the consumer market has shown a steady recovery trend. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 77.2%.
When it comes to expanding consumption in the second half of the year, the meeting proposed to boost the bulk consumption of automobiles, electronic products, homes and other services, and promote the consumption of sports, leisure, cultural tourism and other services.
"Recently, many departments have successively introduced a number of measures to promote mass consumption of automobiles, electronic products, homes, etc., and these policies should be implemented in detail; At the same time, take effective measures to promote the consumption of sports, leisure, cultural tourism and other services, promote the expansion and upgrading of consumption, and promote the growth of household consumption and economic recovery. " Chen Lifen said.
In addition, the meeting made it clear that "it is necessary to give full play to the leading role of government investment and accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds" and "it is necessary to formulate policies and measures to promote private investment".
"With the gradual implementation of policies and measures related to expanding domestic demand, investment and consumption are expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year, and the resilience and stability of China’s economic development will be further enhanced." Chen Lifen said.
Continue to deepen reform and opening up and stabilize the basic disk of foreign trade and foreign investment
The meeting stressed that it is necessary to continue to deepen reform and opening up, adhere to the "two unwavering", effectively improve the core competitiveness of state-owned enterprises, and effectively optimize the development environment of private enterprises.
Not long ago, the publication of "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting the Development and Growth of Private Economy" aroused widespread concern. The meeting further pointed out that it is necessary to resolutely rectify arbitrary charges, fines and apportionment, and solve the problem of government arrears in corporate accounts. It is necessary to establish and improve the normal communication mechanism with enterprises, encourage enterprises to dare to venture, dare to invest and take risks, and actively create markets.
Yang Guangpu, director of the Research Office of Macroeconomic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, said that the meeting focused on specific issues and key links that enterprises care about, in order to refine practical measures, effectively solve practical difficulties and optimize the environment, and continue to break unreasonable restrictions and obstacles to help enterprises recover their vitality and stabilize their expectations.
"We should take multiple measures to stabilize the basic market of foreign trade and foreign investment", "We should increase international flights to ensure the smooth flow of trains between China and Europe" and "We should support the conditional free trade pilot zone and free trade port to connect with international high-standard economic and trade rules" & HELIP; … The meeting made important arrangements for promoting high-level opening up, promoting stable scale and excellent structure of foreign trade, and attracting and utilizing foreign capital more vigorously.
Yang Guangpu said that in the complicated and severe external environment, it is of great significance to continue to promote high-level opening up to stabilize foreign investment and foreign trade. A series of arrangements for this conference will help to smooth the domestic and international double cycle, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, let the world share the market opportunities in China, and inject new momentum into global economic growth.
Effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and timely adjust and optimize real estate policies.
Only by coordinating development and security can China’s economy be stable and far-reaching. The meeting made specific arrangements for preventing and resolving risks in key areas.
The meeting proposed to adapt to the new situation that the relationship between supply and demand in China’s real estate market has undergone major changes, adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner, make good use of the policy toolbox because of the city’s policy, better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
"This is an accurate judgment on the relationship between supply and demand and the change of supply and demand structure in China’s real estate market under the new situation, and it releases a clear signal to adjust and optimize policies in a timely manner and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market." Zou Linhua, head of the national academy of economic strategy Housing Big Data Project Team, said that the main sources of demand for the real estate market in the future include the demand for new housing in urbanization, the demand for improved housing, and the demand for the renewal of old houses.
The meeting proposed that it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve local debt risks and formulate and implement a package debt plan.
"The hidden debt problem of local governments is a key area to prevent and resolve risks at present." Feng Yuming said that it is highly complicated to deal with and resolve the hidden debts of local governments. This meeting proposed to formulate and implement a debt package plan to strengthen overall coordination among departments and governments at all levels.
The meeting proposed to strengthen financial supervision and steadily promote the reform of high-risk small and medium-sized financial institutions.
Ceng Gang, director of the Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, said, according to the business characteristics and risk characteristics of small and medium-sized financial institutions, we should build a differentiated supervision system, at the same time, promote the institutional reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions, improve the risk resolution and disposal system, and firmly hold the bottom line that no systematic risks will occur.
Strengthen the protection of people’s livelihood and stabilize the "rice bowl" of food and energy
To achieve high-quality development, we need to continuously improve people’s livelihood and well-being.
Employment is the foundation of people’s livelihood. In the first half of the year, the national employment situation was generally stable, but the problem of youth employment remained outstanding. The meeting proposed that "we should strengthen the protection of people’s livelihood and raise stable employment to a strategic level."
"The meeting further emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment and released the signal of strengthening the policy of stabilizing employment. With the implementation of measures to stabilize employment, the employment situation is expected to remain generally stable in the second half of the year." Zhang Chenggang, associate professor of capital university of economics and business and director of China New Employment Pattern Research Center, said.
To achieve high-quality development, we also need to coordinate development and safety.
At present, the national summer grain harvest, early rice harvest is in sight, and autumn grain crops grow normally. The meeting proposed to strengthen the protection and quality improvement of cultivated land, consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, and comprehensively promote rural revitalization. In addition, the meeting stressed that it is necessary to resolutely guard against serious accidents and ensure the supply of energy and electricity during the peak summer.
"Stabilize grain and energy ‘ Rice bowl ’ It is related to the overall situation of economic development and social stability. Implementing the deployment of the conference, strengthening food security and improving the capacity of energy resources supply will provide important support for stabilizing the economic market. " Wang Likun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said.
The more critical the moment, the more we must strengthen our confidence and move forward in unison.
To do a good job in economic work in the second half of the year, the key is to unify thoughts and actions with the analysis and judgment of the CPC Central Committee on the economic situation, do a good job in effectively implementing a series of principles, policies and decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee, better stimulate the enthusiasm of entrepreneurs, gather strong synergy to promote high-quality development, and strive to achieve the annual development goals. (Reporter Shen Cheng, Li Yanxia, Wei Yukun, Zou Duowei, Pan Jie, Han Jianuo)