The three major A-share stock indexes opened slightly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index down 0.10% and the Growth Enterprise Market Index down 0.07%. The media, entertainment, communications, Internet, real estate, semiconductors, brokerages, IT equipment and other sectors were among the top losers, while the tourism, automobile, coal and medicine sectors rose slightly.
FTSE China A50 index futures opened lower on the basis of closing up 0.01% in the previous trading day and night, and are now down 0.06%.
The Nikkei 225 index opened up 0.3%. The Seoul Composite Index opened 0.21% higher.
Institutional strategy:
Huatai securities strategy research report believes that the all-A risk premium falls back to the rolling one-year average and then rises again. Structurally, the theme, bonus and boom sectors that took turns during the year were all under pressure, while the sectors such as travel chain and real estate chain, which had little marginal change in fundamentals but were fully adjusted in the early stage, quietly strengthened, or reflected two potential changes: First, under the pressure of fund ranking at the end of the year, the chips were switched between high and low, and the rotation was fast. Under the stock characteristics, the market at the end of the year may have a reversal effect. It is suggested to avoid the "depression" where the increase was too high during the year and the chips/valuation/momentum was low in stages. Second, the shell KMI index fell back to 31.7, and the real estate policies in first-tier cities continued to increase. Before the Central Economic Work Conference, the policies in the real estate/chemical bonds/capital markets were expected to heat up. Considering the above two directions, it is suggested to pay attention to travel chain/real estate chain/medicine, medicine and beauty/agriculture in the short term.
According to the latest report released by the strategy team of Industrial Securities, with the improvement of the external environment and the repair of overseas pessimism about the domestic economy, the RMB has appreciated significantly recently, and the pressure of foreign capital outflow has been eased marginally. Looking back, considering that the end of the year and the beginning of the year are also the traditional time window for foreign institutions to increase their positions in A shares, the return of foreign capital is expected to become an important driver of the market. Structurally, focusing on the value growth leader and high-quality assets such as Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Technology, driven by the recovery of foreign capital, the improvement of domestic funds, and the expectation of important conference policies at the end of the year, is expected to drive the market as a whole to usher in a wave of repair.
CICC’s latest strategy report pointed out that the market rebound since the end of October benefited from the stabilization of valuation in the context of improving investors’ risk appetite. It is suggested to pay attention to the following changes: 1) The countercyclical adjustment policy is still in the process of overweight; 2) The impact of the previous US dollar index and US bond interest rate on the A-share market has eased; 3) The valuation of A shares is still at an extreme level in history, and there is much room for repair in the future. Looking forward to the market outlook, although the A-share market has fluctuated in the short term after a sustained rebound in the previous period, the current asset price still implies investors’ more cautious expectations, so there is no need to be pessimistic about the subsequent market performance.
In terms of configuration, the recovery of risk appetite is expected to drive the small-cap style of A-shares to continue to dominate, but we need to pay attention to the degree of valuation differentiation of large and small-cap styles. Historical experience shows that large valuation differentiation may also bring short-term style rebalancing. At the industry level, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the semiconductor industry chain and the smart car industry chain, as well as innovative drugs that benefit from enterprises going out to sea and easing the interest rate environment.
