Cctv newsIn 2016, looking back at the situation in the Middle East, the word "chaos" was still at the forefront, and the war continued, and Syria and Iraq were undoubtedly the two main battlefields in this chaos.
On these two battlefields, there are threats from extremist organizations, contests between religious factions, wrestling between neighboring countries, and the game between great powers … … The complexity of the situation makes it difficult to see it clearly for a time. This game of chess in the Middle East is getting finer and finer. Among them, on the battlefield in Syria, many parties are strangling each other and their strength is changing, showing an obvious "robbery" situation.
Syria: "Robbery" chaos is like a big country wrestling
The so-called "robbery" in Go means that both black and white sides surround each other’s pieces. In this situation, if the round is white, you can eat a sunspot; If the wheel is dark, you can also eat a Bai Zi, and so on, there will be no solution in the cycle. This situation is quite similar to the development of the situation in Syria this year.
Beginning in 2016, the Syrian battlefield is still fierce. With the support of Russia, Syrian government forces gradually gained the upper hand against extremist organizations and opposition forces supported by the United States and its allies.
In view of the increasingly serious terrorist threat, there were signs of easing between the United States and Russia on the Syrian issue. With the opportunity of sending troops to Syria, Russia successfully forced the United States to return to the negotiating table, and the United States also became loose on the issue of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s stay.
On February 22, the United States and Russia reached an agreement on a ceasefire between the parties to the Syrian conflict. On March 14th, under the impetus of all parties, the Syrian government and the opposition held "substantive" peace talks in Geneva. But on the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin made an unexpected statement.
Russian President Vladimir PutinI believe that the Ministry of National Defense and the armed forces have generally completed the tasks assigned before, so I ordered the Ministry of National Defense to withdraw its main forces from Syria from tomorrow (March 15, 2016).
In September 2015, Russia officially announced that it would send troops to Syria and carried out several rounds of air strikes against extremist organizations in Syria. Before Russia’s intervention, the Syrian government forces were at a disadvantage in the confrontation with the opposition armed forces and extremist armed forces supported by the West, and the Bashar regime was in jeopardy. After Russia intervened, according to Putin, the Syrian government forces "made a fundamental reversal in the fight against international terrorism". On the occasion of successive victories, Putin suddenly announced his withdrawal, which seems unreasonable, but Russia’s entry and exit on the Syrian battlefield is of great significance.
Li Shaoxian, Dean of China Arab Research Institute of Ningxia University.Russia forced the United States and Russia to seek dialogue and cooperation through military actions. In fact, his announcement of withdrawal did not stop military operations in Syria. At the same time, he still said that the action against extremist organizations in Syria would not stop. In fact, he won himself the initiative, and he could attack and retreat.
The secret of "robbery" lies in transformation. Although Russia has withdrawn its main forces from Syria, it has no intention of strategically withdrawing from the Middle East, and still retains a certain military strength in Syria. Russia hopes to negotiate with the United States, but if the United States refuses to negotiate or lacks sincerity, Russia’s reserved successors can continue to "rob the dispute" at any time and force the United States to deal with it.
On August 16th, Russia made another move in the Middle East. For the first time, Russian warplanes took off from Hamadan Air Force Base in Iran to carry out air strikes against extremist organizations in Syria. This was also the first time that Russia used a third-country military base to attack extremist organizations in Syria.
The power contrast between Russia and the United States in the Middle East has quietly changed. Earlier, Russia delivered the S-300 air defense missile system to Iran, and this cooperation between the two countries has made the United States feel like a sore throat.
The entry of Russian military forces into Iran is also enhancing the strategic position of Iran, a Shia power, in the Middle East, which also scares Saudi Arabia, a Sunni power that is a traditional power in the Middle East and a "deadly enemy" of Iran. The combat knife that Putin waved this time not only pierced the United States, but also deeply stabbed Saudi Arabia.
In addition to Iran, Turkey, which shares a border of more than 900 kilometers with Syria, has never withdrawn from the game of chess in the Middle East. In 2016, at the critical stage of the development of the situation in Syria, Turkey’s relations with the United States and Russia have undergone dramatic changes.
Turkey guards the main throat of Russia going south, and it is also the only channel from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea — — Bosporus Strait and Da Daniil Strait are an important link in the anti-terrorism layout of the United States in the Middle East, and they are also NATO’s eastern defense lines to contain Russia. However, the seemingly solid relationship between the United States and Turkey changed after an attempted coup in mid-July. Turkey asked the United States to extradite Gulen, a religious figure suspected of inciting a coup, but it was rejected by the United States, and the relationship between Turkey and the United States gradually faded.
At the same time, Turkey and Russia are rapidly approaching. In November 2015, a Russian Su -24 fighter plane was shot down by Turkey on the Turkish-Syrian border, and the relationship between the two countries deteriorated rapidly and once fell to freezing point. In June this year, Turkish President Erdogan sent a letter to Putin, apologizing for shooting down the fighter plane before. Subsequently, the relationship between the two sides quickly warmed up.
Although Karlov, the Russian ambassador to Turkey, was assassinated on December 19th in full view of the public, this shocking event did not "reverse" the warming Russian-Turkish relations, but instead urged the two countries to "stand together" more closely. In the complicated chess game in the Middle East, Russia and Turkey need each other and borrow from each other, which is the fundamental reason for the two countries to eliminate interference and get close quickly.
Turkey and the United States have been at odds from close allies, but they have been talking with Russia from a distance, which is intriguing. On a black-and-white disk, the color of Turkey becomes bright or dark.
On August 24th, in the border area between Syria and Turkey, an elite Turkish army crossed the border into Syria in a high profile. Turkey declared that the move was aimed at cracking down on extremist organizations, but it implied a "dark chess". Just after Turkey sent troops to Syria, the TV station Russia Today simulated and formed a "Syria Crisis Chat Group", which reflected the most realistic interest entanglement among Turkey, the United States and Russia in the form of simulated dialogue.
Russia:Should we try diplomatic means to solve the problem?
US Vice President Biden:We supported the actions of the Turkish army, and we also dispatched fighter planes to cover it.
Turkey:By the way, we also fight against Kurdish armed forces.
Kurdish armed forces:America, help! Aren’t we allies?
United States:This is a complicated negotiation process. Please step back first.
This huge chessboard in the Middle East is never as simple as the game between Sunspots and Bai Zi, and there are never only two players in the Middle East, the United States and Russia. Faced with the opportunity of restructuring the Middle East, regional powers are competing in succession, and the entanglement of interests also makes this chess game more and more complicated. In the face of multi-party wrestling, the United States and Russia have to pause here before they can continue the game.
Syrian battlefield: the conflict between the United States and Russia intensified behind the middle-set fight against Aleppo
In the autumn of 2016, the layout of all parties in the Middle East has taken shape, and the chess game in Syria has also entered the middle stage.
On September 10, the United States and Russia reached an agreement on the cessation of hostilities between the Syrian parties again, but the agreement soon became a dead letter. The United States and Russia accused each other of breaking the agreement, and the contradictions between the two sides intensified again.
It is not surprising that the ceasefire failed and the agreement was destroyed. In the face of the practical interests of the Middle East, Russia and the United States obviously prefer "fighting".
In October, the fighting in many places in Syria, especially in Aleppo, a major town in the north, rose sharply.
The war in the past four years has ravaged this beautiful ancient city, which was built in the 6th century BC and is considered as one of the oldest settlements in human history.
However, Aleppo, which is in ruins, is a "battleground for military strategists" — — Aleppo is the economic center and the second largest city in Syria before the war. It is located in the west of Syria, about 45 kilometers away from the Syrian-Turkish border, where Syrian government forces, Syrian opposition armed forces, Syrian Kurdish armed forces and extremist organizations are intertwined.
The competition between Syrian government forces and the opposition in Aleppo is becoming increasingly fierce. In a series of siege and anti-siege tug-of-war, the Syrian government forces gradually gained the upper hand, besieged the opposition forces in the eastern part of Aleppo and continuously reduced their sphere of influence.
Near the end of the year, the Syrian government forces made significant progress. On December 22nd, the Syrian military announced that it had completely recovered Aleppo. After four years of Aleppo campaign, Bashar regime has become more active and has more obvious advantages in the domestic battlefield.
In chess, there is another trick called "pressing", which, as the name implies, is to press the opponent’s chess pieces at a low position, so as to gain momentum and stand out for yourself.
In October, Russia announced the deployment of the S-300 air defense missile system in Syria. On November 15th, Russia’s only active aircraft carrier, Kuznetsov, took all carrier-based aircraft and other weapons and equipment to the Mediterranean Sea to join the campaign against extremist organizations in Syria. With the cooperation of Russia, the Syrian government forces have won successively.
In the face of Russia’s "continuous pressure" situation, the United States responded hastily and opened up another battlefield — — Raqqa, the so-called "capital" of extremist organizations.
Raqqa is located in northern Syria, 160 kilometers away from Aleppo. Raqqa province, where it is located, borders Turkey and has an important strategic position. Raqqa is the main hiding place of extremist organizations, and it has fallen into a tight encirclement and is like an island.
The United States expected to open up the battlefield in Raqqa and relieve the pressure of Syrian rebels trapped in Raqqa, but the situation did not develop as expected by the United States. The main force to attack Raqqa is the Syrian Democratic Army led by Syrian Kurdish armed forces. Although Kurdish armed forces are supported by the United States, they have always been a thorn in Turkey’s side, and the United States is caught between the two.
At present, the progress of Raqqa recovery war tends to be slow. Syria’s "Motherland" newspaper believes that the "half-hearted" military action of the United States in Syria is not to eradicate extremist forces, but to attempt to aggravate the chaos by proxy and accelerate the division of Syria. The recovery of Raqqa is nothing more than a propaganda war.
Under the tearing of all parties, the danger of "fragmentation" in Syria is growing. The situation in Syria, chess to the middle, is as complicated as ending.
Similar to Syria, another war in Mosul, a city in northern Iraq, is also fierce and intertwined. But in contrast, the picture of Mosul campaign is clearer than that of Syria. In the chess game on the battlefield in Iraq, the start of 2016 is quite clear. Compared with the decline of the Iraqi army in the face of extremist organizations two years ago, in 2016, the multi-party encirclement and suppression of extremist organizations continued to advance. It is imperative to recover Mosul.
Moreover, at present, the contradictions among various parties in Iraq are prominent, the people’s voice for reform is rising, and the government urgently needs a victory to win more trust.
Iraq: Mosul recovery war starts, and the undercurrent of the United States and Russia surges.
In the early morning of October 17th, local time, the campaign codenamed "Here We Come, Nineveh" was held in the base camp of extremist organizations in Iraq — — It officially started near Mosul. For more than two months, the Iraqi Joint Action Force has been advancing from the east, south and north, recovering many villages and entering Mosul from the east. It is worth mentioning that in the battle of Mosul, the United States personally took the lead, the US military directly participated in air strikes, and heavy vehicles and helicopter gunships also appeared many times.
The Obama administration’s term of office is coming to an end, and Mosul has also become the anti-terrorism legacy that this US government hopes to leave behind.
In the Middle East chess game in the United States, the battle of Mosul has the function of "killing two birds with one stone". The campaign to recover Mosul mainly started from the east, north and south, leaving only a gap in the west.
Russia’s "Independent" believes that this move is to "drive" extremist organizations to Syria, intensify the situation in Syria and weaken the strength of the Syrian government. Public opinion believes that this is also the hope of the United States to compete with Russia for the right to speak in the Middle East.
On the battlefield in Iraq, the United States has a clear layout, but it is not easy to play this chess game. As early as before the Battle of Mosul, Turkey, Iraq, Kurds and others began to quarrel over the control of Mosul, hoping to fill the power vacuum left by the defeat of extremist organizations, which also made the original complicated situation more confusing.
Turkey’s "uninvited arrival" did not surprise the outside world. Previously, although the Iraqi government repeatedly reiterated its opposition to Turkey’s cross-border entry into Iraq, Turkey sent troops to the Turkish-Iraqi border and stationed troops near Mosul.
Why does Turkey have to send troops? Like Turkey’s purpose in sending troops to Syria, its "heart knot" is still Kurds.
In addition to the Kurds, the infiltration of Iranian forces is another worry of Turkey. Although Iran claims that it was not directly involved in the Mosul war, its influence on the Shiite-led Iraqi government cannot be underestimated.
Turkey joined forces with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s sworn enemy, to stop the rapid growth of Iranian Shiite forces on the battlefield in Iraq.
The war is still going on, and the outcome has not yet been determined, but there is no doubt that all forces have their own plans for the future of Mosul and have begun to exert their strength. It is hard to predict who will go in and who will go out.
2017 is coming, and the United States, Russia and other regional powers, which have played fiercely in the Middle East chess game for one year, are gradually becoming clear about the political division in the Middle East as the parties settle down on the chessboard in the Middle East, but how to move the following chess path still makes all parties quite headache.
When will the "official son" stage come to the United States and Russia or welcome the new year?
In the face of the current chess game in the Middle East, what worries Russia most is that it is stuck in the quagmire of the Syrian war.
However, Russia has never been absent from the Middle East crisis. Whether it is the veto vote on the Syrian crisis resolution in the Security Council, the mediation behind the ceasefire agreement, or the military operations still being carried out with the Syrian government forces, Russia has always shown the world its influence in the Middle East.
The term of the Obama administration in the United States is coming to an end. In 2017, what changes will happen to the United States in the Middle East chess game depends on the choice of President-elect Trump. Trump once expressed his position on the situation in the Middle East.
US President-elect TrumpWe spent $6 trillion in the Middle East, which is enough for the United States to rebuild twice, but look at our roads, bridges and tunnel airports. If I represent some kind of denial, it is a denial of the long-term political situation in the United States.
Since western scholars began to call this land "Middle East", it has always been the battlefield of the game between big countries. The sharp change in the pattern of the Middle East in 2016 reflects the evolution of the world trend. America’s strategic eastward shift is bound to limit and reduce its investment in the Middle East. In order to reduce investment and maintain its dominant position, the United States’ Middle East policy is facing great confusion and entanglement, and many changes in the Middle East are rooted in this.
In the new round of "competition" in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and other regional powers are undoubtedly the protagonists standing at the front desk.
However, these big countries, which are either intransigent or strange bedfellows, have their own strengths and weaknesses, and no one can completely dominate the regional situation. In the words of John Mill, an expert on Middle East issues at the Jamestown Foundation in the United States, "In the Middle East, there are always people who think of themselves as brilliant players with fire, because the powder keg here is so dry that even a spark may cause a violent explosion, and they will regret it when they are bombed ‘ Why should I strike that match ’ 。”
It is difficult to rebuild political order, and the chaos in the Middle East may continue.
In 2016, the situation in the Middle East has undergone historic changes: Islamic extremist forces represented by extremist organizations have sprung up in the Middle East, Iraq and Syria have actually become fragmented, Egypt has lost its position as the leader of the Arab world and was replaced by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been marginalized, and Iran has risen rapidly. The United States can’t stop in the Middle East, and Russia has returned to the Middle East strongly. The chaos in the Middle East remains the same, but the pattern has changed greatly.
Dominique, special adviser of the French Institute of International Relations? Moisi pointed out that "the Middle East will not easily overcome the profound differences in the region. It is disintegrating under our eyes. " It is difficult to restore the original order and rebuild the new political structure. I am afraid that the chaos in the Middle East will be long-term and complicated.
