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　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, May 9 th: "Beijing is ready!" — — Wang Wenjie, spokesperson of Beijing Municipal People’s Government, answered questions from Xinhua News Agency on the preparations for the "Belt and Road" international cooperation summit forum.

　　Xinhua news agency reporter

　　On May 8, citizens walked past the "Flower Blossoming and Rich" flower bed arranged at Dongdan Road in Beijing. Recently, Beijing has arranged large flower beds of different styles in Dongdan Road and other places to welcome the upcoming "Belt and Road" international cooperation summit forum in Beijing. Xinhua News Agency reporter Xin Li photo

　　The eyes of the world once again focus on Beijing, the capital of China.

　　After successfully hosting the 2008 Summer Olympic Games and the 2014 APEC Leaders’ Meeting, on May 14th, 2017, the ancient capital of Beijing, which has a history of more than 3,000 years, will usher in a grand gathering of history and future — — "One Belt, One Road" International Cooperation Summit Forum.

　　Less than a week before the opening of this world-famous summit forum, how are the preparations going? Xinhua News Agency interviewed Wang Wenjie, spokesman of Beijing Municipal People’s Government.

　　Various service guarantees have been steadily advanced.

　　Q: What preparations has Beijing made for the "Belt and Road" international cooperation summit forum? How is the overall preparation going at present?

　　A: In the autumn of 2013, the Chairman of the Supreme Leader put forward the cooperation initiative of jointly building the Belt and Road, aiming at complementing each other’s development strategies by strengthening international cooperation and promoting common development. Over the past three years or so, the "Belt and Road" cooperation has been steadily advanced and has been widely welcomed and actively participated by all parties.

　　The "Belt and Road" international cooperation summit forum is a major international event held at the stage of comprehensively promoting pragmatic cooperation in the "Belt and Road" construction, and it is the highest-standard activity under the framework of the "Belt and Road". It is more significant and far-reaching to hold such a high-standard home diplomatic activity before the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

　　Serving the summit forum well is a major political task entrusted to Beijing by the central government, and it also makes us feel a heavy responsibility. The Beijing Municipal Party Committee and the Municipal Government attached great importance to it, and made great efforts to organize and implement it. At present, the service guarantee work is progressing steadily.

　　In the preparatory work for the summit forum, Beijing, as the host city, is mainly responsible for service guarantee. Specifically, Beijing takes the lead in cultural activities and conference services in the preparatory committee of the Summit Forum.

　　In order to do a good job in the service guarantee of the summit forum, since the preparatory work started in October 2016, Beijing has set up a leading group for the service guarantee of the summit forum. On April 27th, Beijing held a swearing-in meeting to mobilize and deploy the service guarantee work in an all-round way, and carried out a number of tasks item by item, and the service guarantee work was carried out in an all-round way as planned. It can be said that the preparatory work is being carried out in an orderly manner, and Beijing is ready to welcome the opening of the summit forum.

　　The National Convention Center and Yanqi Lake International Convention Center are vacant.

　　Q: How is the venue layout of the Summit Forum going? When will the main venue, sub-venue and news center be completed?

　　A: The Summit Forum will hold the opening ceremony, the plenary session of the high-level meeting and six parallel theme meetings at the National Convention Center. Beijing will provide conference services, catering and other guarantees for these activities, only catering, and it is expected to provide catering support for more than 10,000 delegates, media reporters and staff at home and abroad. Among them, the peak of single-day dining is expected to reach 18,000. At present, all the conference venues of the National Convention Center have been built.

　　Yanqi Lake International Conference Center is the main venue of the "Belt and Road" international cooperation summit forum, Jixian Hall is the main venue of the round table summit of the summit forum, and the leaders’ luncheon is held in Haiyan Hall of Yanqi Hotel. At present, the main venue and other functional areas have been arranged.

　　During the summit forum, a press center will be set up in the National Convention Center for Chinese and foreign journalists to use throughout the summit forum, providing information, internet, tea breaks and other standard media services for large-scale international conferences. The press center of the National Convention Center is expected to be completed on May 10th.

　　The volunteer team has completed recruitment and training.

　　Q: How many volunteers participated in the summit forum? What is the focus of work? There are many countries participating in this summit forum. How to arrange college students’ language volunteers? How to ensure barrier-free communication?

　　A: In such a diplomatic event, everyone is a "diplomat", and young volunteers will play an active role. It is an honor and a responsibility for young volunteers to have the opportunity to show their youthful enthusiasm and grace.

　　At present, there are more than 1,300 volunteers in the National Convention Center, 100 volunteers in the registration center of the Summit Forum, more than 500 volunteers in transportation and more than 330 volunteers outside. All volunteer teams have completed recruitment and training.

　　In order to improve the service quality of volunteers, in addition to selecting the best volunteers, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and volunteer service experts were invited for special training, including professional language training according to different job requirements. Volunteers have good professional quality and volunteer service experience, and are determined and more capable of successfully completing various service work.

　　Innovation and frugality are the key words in the preparation of the summit forum.

　　Q: Compared with APEC and the Olympic Games, what work experience have you learned and what innovations have you made in the preparatory work?

　　A: We have learned from APEC’s preparatory experience in terms of organizational leadership system, service support team building, venue layout and reception work, and made innovations in combination with the theme of "One Belt, One Road". For example, the National Convention Center has carried out special training on "One Belt and One Road Background Knowledge" popularization, etiquette, fire fighting and first aid.

　　In order to successfully complete the service reception task of the Summit Forum, the chef team of the National Convention Center began to conceive the catering design related to the Summit Forum from the end of 2016. Combining the theme of the "Belt and Road" conference, the customs and cultural connotations of countries along the route, 37 groups of 884 characteristic tables were designed by techniques such as dough sculpture, sugar art and fruit and vegetable carving.

　　Q: In the preparation of the Summit Forum, the principle of frugality was put forward. How is it reflected in the venue layout and vehicle security?

　　A: The thrifty meeting is an important instruction put forward by the central government, which runs through all kinds of service guarantee work in Beijing and embodies the concept of seeking practical results.

　　When planning the venue layout, the National Convention Center put forward the requirements of energy saving and environmental protection for the building materials. All facilities adopt environmentally-friendly recycled materials, and the venue is mainly made of log materials, which can be built and dismantled at any time. After the event, the parts will be dismantled and recycled to realize recycling. The layout of the venue adopts simple style to highlight the theme; The arrangement of green plants and flowers in the venue shows China style, and the flower arrangement works are elegant and solemn without losing enthusiasm.

　　This conference uses recycled paper, and pencils are also made of environmentally friendly paper. The seats of the participants are reused in different meetings. During the "One Belt, One Road" international cooperation summit forum, participants’ sign-in, notification, meeting briefing, etc. will use information technology to play the role of mobile platform, improve meeting efficiency and reduce the number of printed paper documents.

　　Q: During the summit forum, different venues and activities are involved. How can we make a smooth transition and guarantee the time accurately and accurately?

　　A: Under the guidance of the relevant departments of the central government, Beijing has scientifically formulated the plan for the transfer of personnel, rationally planned the driving route, organized simulated actors to conduct multiple transfer drills and stress tests, found and solved problems in time, and hammered out the details repeatedly to ensure that the transition can be realized quickly and orderly when the summit forum is held.

　　Adhere to the principle of "not disturbing the people" and improve the level of refined urban management

　　Q: How to minimize the impact on the public and ensure that the summit forum will not disturb the people?

　　A: In the preparatory process, Beijing resolutely implemented the important instructions of the central government to "not disturb the people". During the summit forum, motor vehicles will not be restricted to single and even numbers, and there will be no holidays. Adhere to the working concept of "daily work", combine the preparatory work with the continuous improvement of the city’s refined management level, and conscientiously do a good job in the normal urban management such as normal urban operation, infrastructure operation and maintenance, city appearance and environmental improvement, and air pollution prevention and control. At the same time, we also pay attention to giving full play to the traction role of major activities, improving the level of urban operation, environmental improvement and security, and further improving the long-term mechanism for serving and ensuring major activities of the central government.

　　In terms of security, the first is to shorten the time range of security control and minimize the social impact. The second is to improve the form of route guards, scientifically plan traffic routes, reduce the impact on social traffic by shortening the control time, issuing notices in advance, and increasing diversion. At the same time, we also call on citizens to travel green. The third is to innovate the way of safety guarantee and implement the main responsibility of the unit. The fourth is to adjust regulatory measures and strictly control safety.

　　Q: What impact will the summit forum have on Beijing’s urban construction and development?

　　A: Serving the Summit Forum well is conducive to strengthening the function of Beijing National Center for International Exchanges, enhancing the capital’s ability to serve the country’s overall diplomacy, shaping the image of a big country’s capital internationally, and further enhancing Beijing’s international visibility and influence. At the same time, it is also conducive to Beijing to establish and improve the mechanism of comprehensive urban management and emergency management, improve the level of refined urban management, and promote the construction of a world-class harmonious and livable capital.

CCTV News:The Comprehensive Group of Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council released the newly revised "Implementation Guide for Regional novel coronavirus Nucleic Acid Detection Organization (Third Edition)" today (March 22nd). The new edition of the Guide requires that the risk of epidemic spread should be scientifically judged, the scope of regional nucleic acid detection should be delineated, and the quality and efficiency of nucleic acid detection should be further improved.

The third edition of "Guide" requires that after the outbreak of COVID-19, the districts and cities where it is located, including megacities with a permanent population of more than 10 million, should complete the regional nucleic acid detection tasks within 24 hours. When necessary, it can be guaranteed through regional collaborative support; If necessary, you can apply for national support.

The third edition of the Guide emphasizes the accurate delineation of the scope of detection, and the "all staff" in the second edition of the Guide is revised to "area", and the size of the area is determined by the needs of epidemic prevention and control. In order to adapt to the rapid spread of Omicron and other Covid-19 mutant strains, it is stipulated that the nucleic acid detection within a defined range should be completed within 24 hours, so as to further improve the ability of "early detection" of the epidemic. In order to facilitate local calculation and preparation of testing strength, on the basis of fully summing up the experience of Xi ‘an and Tianjin, the third edition of the Guide gives clear calculation guidance on the number of sampling personnel and nucleic acid testing ability required to complete nucleic acid testing within 24 hours.

Dany boon,Alice Polhave a special interview

Special feature of 1905 film network With 2008, dany boon became a well-known French comedy master. At that time, this medium-cost life comedy broke the box office record in France for 42 years and became the most popular French film in the history of France.

　

During the 7th Beijing International Film Festival, dany boon came to China with his new film. This action comedy tells a funny story about a policewoman who joined the special forces. The film also reflects some popular social problems and phenomena such as anti-terrorism, privilege of the second generation of officials, gender equality, gay parade, etc. However, dany boon revealed that his script was written before the terrorist attacks in Paris, and he thought these were inevitable issues involved in the story featuring the policewoman.

　

Despite these serious topics, The Mountain Police Woman is still a hilarious comedy. Without the heroism of "Women Police Save the Country", the French’s little humor is vividly displayed in the film. Dany boon’s male special police officer in the film was called "the declining god" by people around him. He revealed that he had experienced a similar dilemma in his life, and the interview was full of ridicule and self-mockery about the embarrassment he encountered in his life.

　

Dany boon started his career by talking about talk shows. When he was not famous, he used to perform in the streets, even so poor that he had to live in his ex-girlfriend’s house. "At that time, I had a girlfriend, and she told me to move out of her house. I said we could separate, but can I stay in your house for a while … … She said no, and then asked me to pack it. It was interesting to say that the first talk show that made me famous was written during the period of packing. "

The following is an interview record:

　

1905 Movie Network: How do you feel about coming to Beijing this time? Have you tried China cuisine?

Alice pol:I ate roast duck and that Cantonese dim sum.

Dany boon:I have been to China three years ago, and I once ate fried insects in a small village.

　

1905 Movie Network: "Heavenly Soldiers and Female Police" is not only a comedy, but also a lot of action scenes. Do you need to make a lot of preparations for this?

Dany boon:Our preliminary preparation took six months, and the film involved the profession of special forces. Although Alice played a very clumsy female special police, she still had to convince the audience that she was a special police, so we made a lot of efforts, especially the physical training. The heroine had a lot of action scenes in it, and she almost didn’t have to go on it by body double herself, so there were many dangerous scenes.

　

1905 Movie Network: Why did you choose alice pol as the leading role in the film? What do you think are the similarities between her and the role of female special police?

Dany boon:I’ve wanted to make such an action comedy for more than ten years. I’ve always wanted to make a film to praise the French special forces. This idea didn’t come true until recently. I found Alice because we had worked together before, and she always played that stupid girl. Alice was also very happy in her life, so after writing this script, I felt it was very suitable for her, and it was more modern to let a woman play such a funny special forces role. Alice’s life is humorous, and I like her humorous mode very much. Sometimes a good actor will bring you many surprises. Alice is such an actress.

　

1905 Movie Network: Which is more challenging for you, the comedy part or the action part?

Alice pol:The comedy part and the action part are both difficult, but they are not the same. I was very excited when I first got the script, but I was only excited for five minutes, and then I was very nervous, because I had to perform an action play and a comedy. For me, comedy may be relatively better. I have been a very funny person since I was a child, and I will continue to ponder the script on the spot. The director also trusts me, which is a certain control. I haven’t exercised for a long time before filming. In my first boxing class, I punched myself in the face. Fortunately, the director was not at the training ground at that time, otherwise I might have changed actors on the first day. Just now, he said that many of me acted for dangerous scenes by myself, hoping to meet the expectations of the director.

　

1905 Movie Network: Why do you want to show anti-terrorism, gender equality, official collusion and other social problems in the film?

Dany boon:When I choose to shoot a story about the police, and the protagonist is a woman, it will inevitably involve the equality of women in the army. Before making this film, I also specially got to know the women in the special forces. There are about 200 French special forces, including three women. These three women are excellent. They have to work twice as hard in this environment before they can be recognized by their peers, but in fact they may be better than many men. Since it is a story of special forces, there will inevitably be stories between police and bandits, and social problems will naturally extend. In comedy movies, if some social problems are exposed, it may also add some depth to the comedy.

　

1905 Movie Network: In the film, your character was called "the god of decline". Have you ever had such a bad experience in your life?

Dany boon:You asked me if I had experienced such a stage in my life. Of course, like everyone else, I had the same experience. Before I became famous, I was still a busker and a clown. Because I had no money, I sometimes slept at my ex-girlfriend’s house. During that time, my girlfriends dumped me because I couldn’t invite them to dinner. Interestingly, the theme of the first talk show that made me famous was depression. I wrote this because I had a girlfriend who said I was a useless person and asked me to move out of her house. I said we could separate, but could I stay at your house for a while? She said no, and then asked me to pack. This talk show was written when I was packing. So I have experienced this kind of story, and everyone has such a low period.

　

1905 Movie Network: Why did you join the comedy business in the first place? What do you think is the most important characteristic of being a comedian?

Dany boon:To answer the second question first, the most important thing for me is sincerity. If what you say is not sincere, there is nothing funny. Sincerity is what comedians need most. Why do I join in comedy? Because I just like it very much. I like to communicate with people very much. When I was young, my family was poor, and my mother was never very happy. I always did something funny for my mother to make her happy, and I was also very happy. These things were just like being born. Slowly, I found out that I liked it very much. I was also very happy when I thought that I could make people laugh. Maybe this was the talent I had since I was a child.

　"I would cross the Yellow River, but ice chokes the ferry, the Taihang Mountain will be covered with snow." Looking back, ten years is a cycle. According to IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecast, the economic growth rate of emerging markets will fall to the lowest level since 2009 in 2019, and the historical logic of mean regression has ignited the market’s longing for its bottoming out. Looking forward, ten years is a turning point. Although the short-term impact may dissipate, the long-term qualitative change has been formed, and it is doomed that history will not simply repeat itself.

Looking forward to 2020, there are three historical turning points on the road of recovery in emerging markets.

First, the main engine entered a period of fatigue.While China’s economy insists on "slowing down and improving quality", the Indian economy still lacks the steady power to take over, and the weakness of "BRICS" will restrain the rebound of emerging markets.

Second, the main mode hit the ceiling.As the debt cycle enters the second half, the debt-driven growth that emerging markets rely on is unsustainable, while the narrow policy space and rising populist risks are increasing the threat of debt deflation.

Third, the old dividend has become a new weakness.As the external pillar of emerging markets, economic globalization is easy to retreat but difficult to advance, and emerging markets will face multiple risk shocks.

Stumbling on the three historical turning points, the growth rate of emerging markets is expected to continue to fall near the low level of the ten-year cycle in 2020. The sharp contrast between the cold growth rate and the hot expectation will constitute the biggest risk of investment in emerging markets in 2020. However, conservatism is still the most important value factor, which will give China economy a comparative advantage and capital favor.

One of the inflection points: As the main engine of emerging markets, the BRICS countries have entered a period of weakness.

Different from the European Union, North America and other regions, the so-called "emerging market" has always been a loose concept, with neither close external geographical connection nor strong internal organizational coordination. Thus, since the beginning of this century, the growth path of emerging markets has been dominated by the BRICS countries relatively independently. Although there are a large number of other emerging market economies, it is difficult to have an important impact. From 2000 to 2018, the contribution rate of BRICS countries to the added value of GDP in emerging markets was about 59%. During this period, the correlation coefficient between the GDP growth rate of BRICS countries and the overall growth rate of emerging markets was as high as 0.93. In 2002, 2008, 2011, 2016 and other years, although the growth rate of other emerging economies has experienced ups and downs, the overall performance of emerging markets is still similar to that of the BRICS countries. Therefore, the trend of BRICS countries directly determines the ups and downs of emerging markets, and the collective weakness of BRICS countries will also constitute the growth turning point of emerging markets.

Looking forward to 2020, this turning point is coming. As the old engine of emerging markets, the current trend of "slowing down and improving quality" of China’s economy continues, and the desired economic growth rate in the future is expected to be steadily lowered, and the demand for other emerging economies will also be weakened.

As a new engine of emerging markets, the Indian economy may not be able to take over smoothly in the short term. On the economic level, since the second quarter of 2018, India’s economic growth rate has declined quarter by quarter, and the unemployment rate has risen to an all-time high, and it is difficult to find signs of improvement in many leading indicators in the near future. This phenomenon shows that in the case of weak structural reform and slow growth of labor productivity, it is difficult to sustain the consumption growth achieved by consuming household savings too quickly, and the demand-side stimulus of Modi government failed to enhance the long-term motivation of India’s economy. On the financial level, among the major emerging market economies, the deterioration of Indian government debt and fiscal deficit is second only to Brazil. At the same time, since the second quarter of this year, the expansion of the trade deficit, the withdrawal of international capital and the fluctuation of the local currency value are jointly weakening India’s foreign debt solvency, so the debt risk is rising.

Except India, due to low investment, high unemployment, high policy uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts, the economic growth rates of South Africa, Brazil and Russia may be slightly restored in 2020, but the rebound space is narrow. Generally speaking, 2020 will be a year in which the BRICS countries continue to be tired. In this context, it is unrealistic to hope that other emerging economies will drive the strong recovery of emerging markets, and the future growth rate of emerging markets may be weaker than market expectations.

The second turning point: as the main mode of emerging markets, debt-driven hit the ceiling.

Looking back over the past decade, the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis forced the debt risks of developed economies to be partially cleared. In contrast, since 2008, emerging markets have become increasingly dependent on the debt-driven growth model, and the debt intensity of economic growth has increased significantly. According to the statistics of BIS (Bank for International Settlements) and IMF, from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2019, the proportion of non-financial sector liabilities in GDP in emerging markets increased by more than 72 percentage points, which was 57 percentage points higher than that in developed economies. From 2008 to 2019, the median external debt/export of emerging markets also rose from 100% to 160%. While the macro leverage level is high, by 2020, the duration of this round of debt expansion in emerging markets will also approach the historical average of the debt cycle length (15 years). As a result, in the future, emerging markets will move towards the downward stage of the debt cycle with a high probability, actively or passively, and the debt-driven growth they rely on is expected to hit the ceiling of the economic level. Under this trend, due to the limited room for "leverage" in the non-financial sector, although emerging markets will increase monetary easing with the global interest rate cut tide, the materials used to boost the real economy will be marginally attenuated, making it difficult to independently support the steady rebound of the economy.

Facing the limitation of economic ceiling, it will be an inevitable choice to deal with the downward pressure of the economy by taking active fiscal measures to ease the currency. However, the ceiling of policy and politics will be highlighted, which will constrain the active finance. From the perspective of policy space, according to IMF data, from 2009 to 2019, the average value of general government debt /GDP in major emerging market economies has climbed from about 39% to over 46%; On this basis, compared with 2009-2018, the average fiscal deficit ratio of major emerging market economies is expected to rise by 1.8 percentage points in 2019-2024, which is expected to accelerate the accumulation of public debt. As a result, the extra space available in fiscal policy to stimulate the economy is relatively limited, and the endogenous contradiction between government budget balance and economic growth may be further aggravated.

Judging from the political situation, populist forces have become a real risk in emerging markets. Since Brexit in 2016 and Trump was elected president of the United States, the rise of populism in developed economies has attracted attention, but in fact, the rising tide of populism in emerging markets has quietly surpassed the former in depth and intensity.

At the deeper level, taking Europe with more internal comparability as an example, in the second quarter of 2019, among the top ten European populist parties, emerging economies occupied eight seats. Among them, Hungary, Poland and Czech Republic, which are regarded as the recovery engines of Central and Eastern Europe by the market, rank first, second and third respectively. The developed economies only have two seats (Italy and France).

On the strength level, in emerging markets in Latin America, such as Brazil, Chile and Venezuela, populism has shown an extreme trend. Based on this, following the developed economies from 2016 to 2019, the long-accumulated populist risks will break out in emerging markets such as Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America in 2020. This risk will disturb the internal policy rationality and resonate with the external geopolitical game, which is expected to increase the sovereign credit risk of emerging markets and the financing cost of financial institutions, thus amplifying the possibility of triggering "debt deflation".

The third turning point: located in the era of global chaos, the old dividend is becoming a new weakness.

Based on a longer-term historical perspective, in the 30 years since the end of the Cold War, the relatively stable international order and the continuous promotion of global economic integration have built a long-term fast lane for the development of emerging markets. However, due to the drastic changes in the international environment in 2018-2019, the external dependence of emerging markets has degenerated from dividends to weaknesses, and will be manifested from three levels in 2020.

First, the peak of trade friction impact is approaching.Although the global trade game has shown signs of easing since September, the cost accumulated by the previous friction still needs to be cleared. In this round of shocks, the pressure on emerging markets is expected to be higher than that on developed economies. According to the latest forecast of IMF, the negative impact of trade friction on global economic growth in 2020 will rise to the peak in 2018-2023. Moreover, taking G20 members as an example, the negative impact of trade friction on the economic growth of emerging markets in different scenarios is stronger than that of developed countries; The worse the game situation, the wider the impact channels, and the more obvious the difference in intensity. Even if the trade friction measures announced after August 2019 are removed, the above-mentioned difference in impact intensity is expected to reach about 0.24 percentage points.

Second, commodities continued to slump.Against the background of weak global aggregate demand and slowing industrial production, it is difficult for the price centers of energy commodities such as oil, coal and natural gas to rise in 2020. Although short-term supply and price fluctuations may occur due to geographical conflicts, meteorological disasters and other factors, it lacks continuous assistance to the income of energy exporting countries. At the same time, base metal commodities will return to weakness. According to the IMF’s forecast, the global base metal price index will end the rebound in 2019 and turn to a marginal decline of 6.2 percentage points in 2020. Considering that 67% of developing countries’ economies are dependent on commodity exports, the international market downturn in 2020 is expected to drag down the recovery of emerging economies.

Third, the shadow of currency risk is hard to disperse.Although the loose stance of the Federal Reserve in 2020 is expected to lead the US dollar index to decline gradually, it does not mean that emerging market currencies can sit back and relax. The experience in 2019 shows that geopolitical conflicts have a higher influence on the currency trend of emerging markets in the short term than the Fed’s interest rate cut process. With the long-term global trade game and geopolitical conflict, emerging market currencies may encounter staged and structural risk shocks in 2020, and thus move towards performance differentiation. According to our calculation, if the above shocks occur, the ten most dangerous currencies in emerging markets are: Venezuelan Bolivarian, Argentine peso, Indian Rupee, Brazilian real, Turkish lira, South African rand, Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Belarusian rouble and Vietnamese dong.

There is no shortcut to crossing the turning point, and the emerging rebound may be late.

Facing the three historic turning points, emerging markets need to accelerate structural reforms internally; In order to adapt to the new global trade system of intra-industry trade regionalization and inter-industry trade globalization, it is necessary to expand its opening to the United States and actively build regional trade agreements with other manufacturing powers. There are no shortcuts to these countermeasures, let alone a year’s work.

Based on the above analysis, we can draw the following three inferences.

First, the strong rebound in emerging markets is expected to be late.In 2020, emerging markets will still be in the long-term process of crossing the historical turning point, and the growth rate is expected to continue to fall near the low level of the ten-year cycle. As a whole, it is difficult to see a sustained and strong growth rebound.

Second, expected reversal will be the biggest risk.In 2020, under the pressure of low interest rates and asset shortage in developed economies, international capital will be forced to seek high returns from emerging markets, thus enhancing its imagination of bottoming out in emerging markets. However, once this expectation seriously deviates from the weak growth of emerging markets, the hard facts will eventually shatter the illusion. Fast forward and fast out of capital will touch the debt risk and exchange rate risk, and the roles of "honey" and "arsenic" will switch more frequently.

Third, robustness will be the most important value factor.Under the threat of expected reversal, "steady low growth" is more valuable than "fragile high growth" As analyzed above, from the perspectives of debt risk, exchange rate risk and populist risk, compared with other emerging markets such as India, Central and Eastern Europe and Latin China,’s economy "slowing down and improving quality" still has a high stability, which is expected to gain value advantages and capital favor.

(Cheng Shi is chief economist, managing director and head of research department of ICBC International, and Qian Zhijun is senior economist of ICBC International)